Trump has been back in the White House for a year now, and his standing — more than anything else — will define the mood and the direction of the midterm campaign. Ebersole scores his performance at a 3 out of 5.

A 2021 state election law change designated more voters as "inactive," a status that has disproportionately affected Democrats. Many eastern Iowa counties, once Democratic strongholds, have shifted to having more registered Republican voters. Republicans ...