I don’t mean to suggest that FiveThirtyEight invented the concept of systematic polling error, but the FiveThirtyEight/Silver ...

This is the landing page the FLIPR 1 2026 Senate forecast. 2 This page is designed to be viewed on the web rather than in our ...

Below, you’ll find our forecast for each 2026 gubernatorial race, along with how our numbers have changed over time and a chart showing which party will govern more Americans after the midterms.4 ...

Below, you’ll find our forecast for each 2026 House race, along with how our numbers have changed over time and which states are likeliest to decide control of the chamber. Below, you’ll find our ...

The forecast has been relatively stable since the beginning of October. Still, Democrats’ odds of retaking the House and Senate have hit new highs over the past few days. The party’s lead on our ...

Over the weekend, Donald Trump hit yet another all-time approval rating low of net -23.9. As of today, he’s bounced back slightly to -22.3. That’s in large part due a pair of new polls — one from TIPP ...

Mr. Irrelevant” has the NFL’s highest QBERT rating so far this season. It’s time to stop holding his draft position against ...

Can Democrats still win the Senate if the polls overestimate them? And how ugly could the map get for Republicans if the ...

Republicans might hold on to one or two of the toss-up Senate races, but the tide will be too strong to resist elsewhere. At ...